Early March Madness Predictions Through the Lense of AI

Written by Joe O’Hara

AI has become a very prominent tool in the professional world. AI’s reach touches almost every industry today. It is used in data analytics to help analyze data trends and create forecasts, it is used in customer service as chatbots or virtual assistants to handle customer inquiries, and it is used in marketing to personalize ads (everyone knows how scary this one is). These are just some of the places we see AI being used today. Today I am working with everyone’s favorite co-worker, ChatGPT, to determine one of the most difficult things to predict, who will win the College Basketball March Madness tournament.

I started by ensuring that ChatGPT would have no personal bias in selecting a winner for the upcoming tournament:

Do you have any bias in who you would predict to win the upcoming March Madness tournament? Are you a Duke Fan?

Chat GPT:

I don’t have any personal bias, but if you are asking whether I can predict the winner of March Madness, that’s tricky!
It’s one of the most unpredictable tournaments in sports. Upsets happen every year, and even top-seeded teams get
knocked out early sometimes.

Then I asked some questions to determine if there are any trends in predicting a winner. I asked for some general trends for teams that have made deep runs in the tournament for the past 10 or so years:

Chat GPT:

Final Four Trends (2015-2024)
1. No. 1 Seeds Are Not Guaranteed Final Four Spots – While No. 1 seeds are favored, they have not dominated the Final Four. Over the past decade, an average of 1.1 No. 1 seeds per year have made it. Some years had multiple (e.g., 2016, 2018, 2021), while others, like 2023, had none, showing the tournament’s unpredictability.
2. Lower seeds Can Make Deep Runs – Teams seeded No. 10 or lower have consistently reached the Final Four, including Loyala-Chicago (2018), UCLA (2021) and FAU (2023).
3. Mid-Majors Can Break Through – Non-power conference teams have made surprising Final Four runs in recent years, such as Loyala-Chicago, Houston, and San Diego State.
4. Repeat Contenders – Some programs have consistently made deep tournament runs, with Villanova, North Carolina, and Gonzaga appearing in multiple Final Fours over the past decade.
5. Experience Matters – Veteran-led teams often find success. Champions like Virgina 2019 and Baylor (2021) had experienced rosters that handled tournament pressure well.
6. Defense Wins Championships – Many teams that reached the Final Four have had elite defenses including Texas Tech (2019 and Houston (2021), proving that stopping opponents is just as crucial as scoring.

I wanted to narrow the focus of ChatGPT to see if we could determine more specific trends that would help narrow down the list of potential contenders. I asked if a particular conference has been dominant in the NCAA tournament:

Chat GPT:

Key Takeaway:
•  The ACC (Duke, UNC, Virginia) has been the most successful in winning titles.
•  The Big 12 (Kansas, Baylor) is the hottest recent conference.
•  The Big 10 struggles to win it all despite sending strong teams.
•  The SEC is rising with more consistent deep runs.
•  Mid-majors can make noise but haven’t won championships

I asked if offense or defense are more important in determining a winning team in March Madness:

Chat GPT:

If you are picking a champ, look for a team with:
• Top-10 defense in KenPom rankings
• Strong 3-point shooting (37%+ from deep)
• Experienced guards who can shoot and defend

Want me to check which teams fit this profile this year?

Using the above information I asked for some teams who fit the above profile including some Cinderella teams
that could be considered:

Chat GPT:

2025 NCAA Tournament Contenders:
1. Duke (ACC)
2. Kentucky (SEC)
3. Michigan (Big Ten)
4. BYU (Big 12)
5. Yale (Ivy League)
6. Gonzaga (WCC)
7. VCU (A-10) (Dependent on winning their conference tournament)

Finally asking which team ChatGPT believes will win the March Madness tournament from the list of teams above:

Chat GPT:

Final Prediction: Duke Will Win It All
With Cooper Flagg leading the charge, an elite defense, balanced scoring, depth and strong coaching, Duke has all the ingredients needed to win the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
When it is all said and done, expect to see the Blue Devils cutting down the nets in April.
••••• Duke: 2025 National Champions •••••

Turns out ChatGPT has a Duke bias after all!

 

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